The Evolution of Rural Maternity Services: The Development of a Predictive Model

Research Team

Principal Investigators:  Jude Kornelsen and Stefan Grzybowski

Support Team:  Shelagh Levangie, Andrew Birse, Lynn Tran

Funding Agency

Application submitted to the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, with financial support from the Interior Health Authority, the British Columbia Reproductive Care Program, and the United Church Health Services.

Project Summary

The goal of this research is the further develop and validate a preliminary index (The Rural Birth Index) designed to estimate/predict the appropriate level of maternity service for a given rural population based on population characteristics and isolation score.  Specific objectives include:

1. To apply indicators to measure the congruence between the model and health system outcomes in BC;
2. To explore negative case examples in BC to determine the cause of variance;
3. To evaluate the utility of the model to health care planners in BC; and
4. To apply the model to a validation sample (rural maternity services in Alberta).

The Rural Birth Index is a population-isolation-based score intended to estimate/predict the appropriate level of maternity service for a given rural population in BC, in the form of a composite birth index.  It was designed using an iterative, mathematical approach theoretically informed by complex adaptive systems theory and based on intensive research in 21 rural communities in BC.  Further development/refinement and validation of this model will strengthen rural maternity health service planning by providing a benchmark for appropriate levels of local services based on the objective and easily measurable/available characteristics of the population and physical environments.

Project Update

Although we are still waiting for a decision from CIHR regarding funding, the research team is currently working on collecting information to validate the index in Alberta.  We have sent a manuscript to the Health Policy Journal for peer-review, and are also presenting the index at conferences and meetings (SRPC, Health Authority research rounds, etc.).

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